Well, folks, is China gonna invade Taiwan, or are they gonna control themselves and just issue a new law that has little meaning for cross-strait relations? This weekend, like tomorrow, the National People's Congress is gonna meet and pass a law aimed at keeping Taiwan on a short leash. This website will monitor the situation with news reports and commentary, and if China does invade, we will stay here and fight alongside the Taiwanese people and tell bully China to shove it!
Michael A. Lev, Chicago Tribune, reporting from Beijing
Philip P. Pan, Washington Post, reporting from Beijing
Bruce Klingner, reporting from Hong Kong
Mark Kolvin, Australia
Tamora Vidaillet in Beijing
John Taylor, Australia
Several things could happen:
1. China passes a very watered-down anti-secession law and steps back from the fray
NO. IT DID NOT.
2. China passes a very strong-toothed law and ups the ante. SORT OF, YES.
3. China invades Taiwan on Monday (in 2050?) NO.
4. The US comes to Taiwan's rescue on Tuesday (in 2051?) NO NEED TO.
5. World War III breaks out on Wednesday (in 2053?) JUST KIDDING.
Note: This blogger is in Taiwan, a country with very few friends in the world community. We support Taiwan's nationhood, its defacto independence and its wonderful, friendly, hospitable people, full of life and dreams.
this news just in! TUESDAY, March 8th...
CNN news is reporting....
Beijing lays down law over Taiwan
Monday, March 7, 2005 Posted: 10:10 PM EST (0310 GMT)
China reserves the legael right to use military action against Taiwan if peaceful means fail to stop the democratic island nation from pursuing s--called independence, under a stupid new law unveiled Tuesday in an 11-page document.
That's the bad news.
But the sort of good news is:
[In the event of any armed conflict, China would take the utmost care to protect civilians and foreigners, as well as their property...including those on Taiwan?]
The really good news is:
The document also stated that China wants to negotiate with Taiwan "as equal partners" and discussed strengthening education, sporting and cultural ties across the Taiwan Strait.
More good news here"
China Offers `Equal Footing' in Taiwan Talks
Chinese leaders sweetened their call for talks on Taiwan's future, as the island nation's leaders stiffened their condemnation of Beijing legislation that may lay the framework for reunification by force.
`` We insist on one China,'' Communist Dictator Wen Jia-bao said in his annual address to the mind-controlled National Brainwashed-People's Congress today. ``We insist on cross-strait negotiations based on equal status for both sides.''
The ``equal status'' reference, unusual in China's Taiwan lexicon, came a day after Communist Dictator Bully President Hu Jin-tao told a group of brainwashed and mindcontrolled congressional dupes that re-unification should be based on ``consultation on an equal footing,'' and after a Communist Party spokesman said the proposed anti-secession law wasn't war mobilization against Taiwan.
``I'm happy to hear he said `equal footing.' This is the first time I've heard that,'' said Andrew Yang, secretary-general of the Taiwan Council of Advanced Policy Studies in Taipei. ``Free and democratic Taiwan has sought this for a long time, and communist China has finally agreed. They're agreeing to equal footing because they want to minimize suspicion from Taiwan toward this anti-secession law. They are trying for some damage control.''
[To contact the editor responsible for this story
Bruce Grant in Hong Kong at]
bruceg@bloomberg.net
Meanwhile, here's what one US commentator, based in Hawaii at the Pacific Forum CSIS, had to say last week in the pages of the pro-Taiwan, left-leaning Taipei Times.
HEADLINE: Much ado about China's so-called "anti-secession" law
Text: Ralph Cossa
Date: March 4, 2005
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/edit/archives/2005/03/04/2003225415
It is not uncommon in the US to condemn movies we haven't seen or criticize books we haven't read based solely on their titles or our worst fears regarding their presumed or rumored contents. It seems our compatriots in Taiwan have adopted this same trait.
I'm talking, of course, about the critical reaction in Taipei -- and in some circles in Washington -- to Beijing's proposed "anti-secession" law, which is slated to be enacted by the soon-to-be-convened National People's Congress (NPC). While the text is yet to be seen, this has not prevented many in both capitals from severely condemning the legislation.
It is difficult to be too critical of this tendency, having been guilty of it myself. During a recent trip to Beijing I found myself expressing concerns over the implications of the legislation, regardless of its contents. The big question is, "Why now?" At a time when there finally seems to be some modest progress in cross-strait relations -- the unprecedented direct flights between Taiwan and China during the Lunar New Year holiday period and the sending of two senior Chinese representatives to the memorial service for veteran cross-strait negotiator Koo Chen-fu (辜振甫) -- why does Beijing think it necessary to pursue it?
The simple answer seems to be continuing deep distrust of President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁). The legislation had its genesis in Chen's surprise re-election in March last year and received added impetus last fall when Beijing's experts -- like most Taiwan-watchers, not to mention Chen himself -- were predicting victory for the pan-green camp in December's legislative elections. When the outcome was a pleasant surprise -- from Beijing's perspective, at least -- the new law had already gained too much momentum to be abandoned. Besides, Beijing interlocutors argued, the results of the legislative elections, while admittedly making it harder for Chen to carry out his "splittist" agenda, were not likely to persuade him to alter his overall independence agenda. His tactics might change, but not his objective.
The main Chinese "concession" in response to the legislative elections was to rename the bill. The "Unification Law" -- a title which implied an aggressive and impatient outlook -- became anti-secession legislation aimed merely at "preserving the status quo."
Since US President George W. Bush has repeatedly stated that he opposes any unilateral change to the status quo, this new legislation "puts Beijing's One China principle squarely in line with Washington's One China policy," it was argued. It also "underscores China's respect for the rule of law."
While these arguments are not particularly convincing, they do represent a growing sophistication -- and a willingness to throw the Bush administration's logic back at Washington.
The counter-arguments -- that the legislation will incite and empower Beijing's critics in Washington and Taipei and could breathe new life into Chen's presumed "independence agenda" by handing him an excuse for counter-legislation or another referendum -- failed to impress Chinese officials, who sent a clear signal about their ambiguous legislation: If you want to make suggestions as to how we can word the legislation more effectively, or make it less inflammatory, then we are all ears; but if you try to talk us out of introducing the new law, "save your breath!"
It was claimed that once we actually saw the legislation -- and it would be made public immediately after approval by the NPC -- we would see that all the furor had been "much ado about nothing."
Perhaps. But regardless of its content, the proposed legislation presents an opportune target Chen will find hard to resist shooting at.
If Chen sees his second-term legacy as building a bridge across the Taiwan Strait, he might indeed see this legislation as the "opportunity for dialogue" that Beijing claims it will represent. By laying down what is not allowed -- independence -- the legislation will open the door for serious cross-strait dialogue as long as this "red line" is not crossed. If Chen is more intent on consolidating Taiwan's separation from China, however, he will approach the legislation like the trial lawyer he was, exploiting loopholes and finding ways of turning even the most passive of statements into a justification for the pursuit of his agenda.
Assuming that Beijing proceeds with this legislation -- and, regrettably, I see no reason to assume otherwise -- the ball, like it or not, will be in Chen's court once again. He would do well to wait until seeing the legislation before locking himself into any course of action as he currently seems to be doing. Earlier threats to introduce counter-legislation or hold an anti-annexation referendum are now wisely being described as "options" rather than definite outcomes by the Presidential Office, even if certain coalition members are demanding harsher action.
The Bush administration seems to be waiting, wisely in my view, to see the wording of the legislation before reacting. One hopes that Taiwan and its friends in the US Congress will do the same.
It would be much wiser in the long run to examine how the legislation might be turned to Taipei's geopolitical advantage, rather than to merely exploit it for domestic political purposes, as tempting as that course of action might be.
[Note: Ralph Cossa is president of the Pacific Forum CSIS, a Honolulu-based non-profit research institute affiliated with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. This story has been viewed 13,233 times. ]
NEXT:
posted by DANIELBLOOM @ 4:03 AM
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Taiwan Keeps an Anxious Eye on China's National People's Congress
By Ching-Ching Ni,
LA Times Staff Writer
March 4 article
In BEIJING — Think of it as the Chinese Communist Party's convention. About 3,000 delegates from across the country gather each year at the cavernous Great Hall of the People in the heart of this capital to hear long policy speeches and rubber-stamp laws approved by the party elite.
The annual meeting of the National People's Congress, the legislature, may appear to be little more than a political charade. But it is an important event on the Chinese political calendar, offering a rare glimpse at policy trends in a largely closed system.
This year's session, which begins March 5, will be watched closely by Taiwan. The Congress is expected to pass a controversial anti-secession law aimed at preventing the Taiwanese from declaring independence. China considers the self-ruling island part of its territory and has vowed to take it back by force if necessary.
Though little has been revealed about the content of the legislation or how it would help Beijing stop separatist activities, observers in Taiwan say the measure can only heighten tensions in one of Asia's most volatile tinderboxes.
"The majority of the people in Taiwan do not like it. They view it as hostile and unnecessary," said Chien-min Chao, a political scientist at the National Chengchi University in Taiwan. "China is being provocative. They are already aiming so many missiles at Taiwan. This is just another excuse for Beijing to take Taiwan back by whatever means necessary."
China, on the other hand, maintains that the bill is only a response to the pro-independence stance of Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian.
"The Chinese government has been saying for a long time that if you recognize the one-China principle, tensions across the Taiwan Strait would naturally be relaxed," said Xu Bodong, director of the Institute of Taiwan Studies at the state-run Beijing Union University. "Now we are putting that into law so no matter who is in charge in the future, they will have to follow the law to maintain peace and stability.
"Taiwan independence is illegal," Xu added. "If you don't stop Taiwan independence, you are also violating the law. It works on both sides."
Xu said details about the bill should be available after it had been approved by delegates.
Another item on this year's agenda was the official retirement of former President Jiang Zemin, 78, from his last remaining post.
He handed in his resignation today as chairman of the government's Central Military Commission.
Jiang's successor as president, Hu Jintao, has been consolidating his power and pushing for a more populist government since becoming general secretary of the Communist Party in November 2002.
This year, the National People's Congress will continue to tackle issues such as corruption, peasant rights and widening income disparities, which are considered among the top threats to social stability.
A phrase on the lips of arriving delegates is the call for a more "harmonious society." The mantra is likely to become Hu's version of Jiang's slogan, "Three Represents."
Although his predecessor broke new ground by allowing entrepreneurs to join party ranks, Hu is advocating greater inclusion of the poor, who have been left out of the country's turbocharged economic growth in recent years.
To underscore the emphasis on a more efficient government, Beijing has shortened the length of the annual meetings from the usual two weeks to 10 days. Organizers also are expected to cut back the traditional reading of lengthy government reports, each presentation of which could last for hours. Instead delegates will be handed written drafts and spend more time debating the issues.
Each year, buses and official cars ferrying the thousands of delegates to and from the meetings all but paralyze Beijing traffic, becoming a hated symbol of the government's special privilege. This year, authorities are making an extra effort to reduce the time the caravans travel the roads and to make them wait at stoplights and take turns in traffic.
"These are very practical and considerate moves," Xu said.
At the same time, the government has tightened security in the capital — particularly around Tiananmen Square, parts of which will be blocked to normal traffic and pedestrians. Authorities also are expected to order the roundup of potential troublemakers; dissent, even in cyberspace, will be excised by censors.
"We have to beware of infiltration by hostile forces," according to a speech by Luo Gan, a Politburo member in charge of law enforcement, timed to the start of the Congress.
TAIPEI MAYOR URGES TAIWAN, CHINA TO STOP PROVOKING EACH OTHER
2005/03/04
Tokyo, March 4 (CNA)
Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou called on Taiwan and China Friday to stop making provocative moves so as not to intensify cross-Taiwan Strait tension. Addressing a Tokyo gathering with a group of Taiwanese expatriates in Japan, Ma said the government in Taiwan should drop the ideological pursuit of changing the official name of the country and drafting a new constitution, which he said will impede the development of the island. The government should instead concentrate on efforts to improve the economy, law and order, and national development, Ma said. He also said he believes last week's meeting between President Chen Shui-bian and opposition People First Party Chairman James Soong will be helpful to Taiwan's political stability. Chen declared in the meeting that he has no plan to change the country's name during his term and that his planned constitutional reforms will not involve changes to national sovereignty, territory or cross-strait status quo. Ma said it is incomprehensible as to why Beijing decided to enact an anti-secession law targeting Taiwan after the victory in last year's legislative elections of the "pan-blue alliance" of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT), People First Party and New Party, which opposes independence for Taiwan. He suggested that both sides of the strait stop such provocative moves and enhance exchanges to build up mutual trust. Meanwhile, the mayor, who is also a vice chairman of the KMT, said he will start campaigning for his bid to run for the party's chairmanship after registering his candidacy in late March. He said taking part in the chairmanship election is not necessarily related to the question of whether he will run for the 2008 presidency. Ma arrived in Japan earlier this week for a four-day visit. He is scheduled to meet Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara and Yokohama Mayor Hiroshi Nakada later in the day.
Four-point guideline on cross-Straits relations set forth by President Dictator Hu of Commie China
BEIJING, March 4 Chinese Dictator Hu Jin-tao set forth a four-point guideline on cross-strait relations under the new circumstances, while attending a joint panel discussion of China's top advisory body members representing the nation of Taiwan Friday afternoon. The guideline is as follows:
First, never sway in adhering to the one-China one-Taiwan principle.
Adherence to the one-China one-Taiwan principle serves as the cornerstone for developing cross-Strait relations and realizing true democracy and freedom in China.
Although China and Taiwan can never be reunified, the fact that the two sides can be friends in a free world remains the same. This is the status quo of cross-Strait relations.
THEN THIS BULLSHIT: "This is not only our stand, but also what can be found in the existing regulations and documents in Taiwan. Since Taiwan and the mainland belong to one and the same China, there shall be no such question as who annexes whom between the mainland and Taiwan.
The sticking point in the current development of cross-Straits relations lies in the fact that the Taiwan authorities have refused to recognize the one-China principle and the "1992 Consensus" which embodies this principle. Whoever started the trouble should end it. Dialogues and talks between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait can be resumed immediately, and can be carried out on whatever topics and issues, as long as the Taiwan authorities acknowledge the "1992 Consensus". The two sides can not only talk about the official conclusion of the state of hostility, the establishment of military mutual trust, the Taiwan region's room of international operation compatible with its status, the political status of the Taiwan authorities and the framework for peaceful and stable development of cross-Straits relations, which we have proposed, but also talk about all the issues that need to be resolved in the process of realizing peaceful reunification.
We welcome the efforts made by any individuals or any political parties in Taiwan toward the direction of recognizing the one-China principle. No matter who he is and which political party it is, and no matter what they said and did in the past, we're willing to talk with them on issues of developing cross-Straits relations and promoting peaceful reunification as long as they recognize the one-China principle and the "1992 Consensus".
We hope the Taiwan authorities could stop all activities for "Taiwan independence" and return to the path of recognizing the "1992 Consensus" at an early date.
Once the one-China principle is followed, we are willing to make positive responses to any proposals and suggestions which are conducive to maintaining peace in the Taiwan Straits, developing cross-Straits relations and promoting peaceful reunification, and also willing to seek, on the basis of the joint efforts by both sides, new ways for contacts and communications.
2. Second, never give up efforts to achieve true democracy in China. Communism is bullshit.
The 1.3 billion Chinese people, and our Taiwanese friends across the sea, all love peace and sincerely hope to maintain peace and live in peace. They share an even greater hope that the flesh-and-blood brothers in one family can resolve their own problems peacefully.
A peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue and peaceful reunification of the motherland conforms to the fundamental interests of compatriots across the Taiwan Straits and the Chinese nation, as well as the currents of peace and development in the world today. This is the fundamental reason why we have always been making unremitting efforts for the realization of peaceful reunification.
Peaceful reunification does not mean that one side "swallows" the other, but that the two sides confer on reunification through consultation on an equal footing. The realization of peaceful reunification between the two sides across the Straits is a bliss for the compatriots on both sides, as well as a bliss for the region and the whole world. When the two sides of the Straits are reunited, the estrangement across the Straits caused by a long time of separation can be removed, and affinity between the compatriots on both sides enhanced. The military confrontation across the Straits will be brought to an end, making it possible for the compatriots on both sides to jointly engage themselves in peaceful construction. The economies of both sides can better complement and mutually benefit each other, bringing the compatriots on both sides together to seek common development. Both sides can work together to push forward the lofty cause of world peace and development, allowing the compatriots on both sides to share the dignity and glory of the great motherland. State sovereignty and territorial integrity can be genuinely guaranteed, enabling the compatriots on both sides to jointly promote the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
The people long for peace and the country needs stability. As long as there is still a ray of hope for peaceful reunification, we'll do our utmost to achieve it. We hope at the bottom of our hearts that relevant personages and political parties in Taiwan would seriously consider this important issue, and proceeding from the righteous cause of the nation and the well-being of the compatriots on both sides of the Straits, make the correct historic choice to maintain peace across the Taiwan Straits, promote cross-Straits relations and realize peaceful reunification.
TAIPEI : Taiwan Vice President Annette Lu on Saturday criticised Beijing's plans to pass a law aimed at preventing the island from declaring formal independence and urged it to recognise the fact of "two Chinas".
"Basically the law aims to criminalise remarks and actions for Taiwan independence," Lu said in an interview with CTS TV station.
"Why don't we just yell out 'two Chinas' - the Republic of China in Taiwan and the People's Republic of China on the mainland," said Lu from the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
"There are many disputes over the definition of national sovereignty and we should clarify on the fact (of 'two Chinas') to let the international community understand and make it more convenient to support us."
Beijing, which holds there is only one China, is planning to pass a law aimed at preventing any bid for independence by Taiwan at the end of a full session of its National People's Congress, or parliament, on March 14.
China regards the island as part of its territory awaiting reunification, by force if necessary, although the two sides split in 1949 at the end of a civil war.
Taiwan authorities are increasingly concerned that the "anti-secession law," if enacted, could create the legal basis for China to take the island by force.
Premier Frank Hsieh again urged Beijing to consider strong objections to the law from "all Taiwanese people, political parties and private sectors."
"If China misjudges the situation in Taiwan, its gap with the Taiwan people will further widen," he told reporters.
China on Friday defended the law, saying it was aimed at promoting peaceful reunification with the island rather than being a "war mobilisation order".
President Hu Jintao, however, cautioned that Beijing would never tolerate the island's independence "under any name or by any means".
Taiwan's pro-independence groups are gearing up for two mass rallies against the "anti-secession law" on Sunday.
The ultra pro-independence Taiwan Solidarity Union is expected to promote an "anti-annexation" law to counter China's anti-secession bid in a march in the southern city of Kaohsiung.
Former president Lee Teng-hui, branded by Beijing as a "separatist" pushing for formal independence for Taiwan, will lead an estimated 50,000 marchers in Kaohsiung.
The ruling DPP plans to gather some 2,000 supporters for a rally in Taipei but its leader, President Chen Shui-bian, won't attend as reports suggested he wished to stay low-key before the law is passed.
China Offers `Equal Footing' in Taiwan Talks
March 5 (Bloomberg)
Chinese leaders sweetened their call for talks on Taiwan's future, as the island's leaders stiffened their condemnation of Beijing legislation that may lay the framework for reunification by force.
`` We insist on one China,'' Premier Wen Jiabao said in his annual address to the National People's Congress today. ``We insist on cross-Strait negotiations based on equal status for both sides.''
The ``equal status'' reference, unusual in China's Taiwan lexicon, came a day after President Hu Jintao told a group of congressional delegates that reunification should be based on ``consultation on an equal footing,'' and after a party spokesman said the proposed anti-secession law wasn't war mobilization against Taiwan.
``I'm happy to hear he said `equal footing.' This is the first time I've heard that,'' said Andrew Yang, secretary-general of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies in Taipei. ``Taiwan has sought this for a long time, and China has finally agreed. They're agreeing to equal footing because they want to minimize suspicion from Taiwan toward this anti-secession law. They are trying for some damage control.''
To contact the editor responsible for this story
Bruce Grant in Hong Kong at
bruceg@bloomberg.net
This is pure Communist propaganda laughablle mindcontrolled bulkksheet
from the commies news agency in Beijing, a "balanced" report from Tawian
HA HA HA HA HA HA, Balanced????
Anti-secession law dispels people's worries in Taiwan
www.chinaview.cn 2005-03-08 21:25:24
TAIPEI, March 8 (Xinhuanet) -- As the top Chinese legislature Tuesday formally began deliberating a draft law aimed at effectively checking Taiwan's secession from China, residents in Taiwan interviewed by Xinhua called the proposed law "pragmatic, staunch, mild and rational" and hoped the law could "promote the development of cross-Straits relations by legal means".
"The main content of the draft law made public today showed that it is a law of peace, not a 'law of war' as described by the pro-independence activists in their propaganda," said Chen Yuchun,director of the Graduate School of American Studies of the Taiwan-based Chinese Culture University.
Chen, after reading news reports about the explanations made byWang Zhaoguo, vice chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC), China's top legislature, on the draft anti-secession law Tuesday morning, said that such explanations dispelled doubts and worries of some people in Taiwanand made general public in Taiwan feel at ease.
"I think this law is pragmatic, staunch, mild and rational, andwill help create new opportunities for the development of cross-Straits relations," Chen added.
The proposed anti-secession law will make clear the severe consequences of "Taiwan independence" activities and serve as a deterrence to the secessionist forces on the island, said Shaw Chong Hai, a professor with the Chinese Culture University.
Wang Chin Ping, chairman of China Foundation of Taiwan, noted that the anti-secession law would outline concrete measures for encouraging and promoting cross-Straits personnel, cultural, scientific and sports exchanges and economic cooperation, showing the mainland's active attitude toward promoting peace, stability and development across the Straits.
Jyh-huei Her, chairman of the Taiwan-based Cross-Strait Economic & Trade Association, said that the proposed law has a clear-cut aim of "promoting the development of cross-Straits relations by legal means", and epitomizes the "goodwill of the mainland."
"It is the secessionist activities of the 'Taiwan independence'forces, such as the seeking of 'Constitutional reform' and 'referendum', that have led to the enactment of the anti-secession law," asserted Su Chi, a professor with Taiwan's Tamkang University.
The proposed law has differentiated the broad masses of the Taiwan people, who are against "Taiwan independence", from a handful of secessionists, and has helped the Taiwan people see clearly the "bottomline" in the cross-Straits relations, added Su.
Citing Chinese President Hu Jintao's latest proposal that "cross-Straits dialogues and talks can be resumed immediately as long as both sides recognize the '1992 Consensus'", Su said "this is the best way out for the Taiwan authorities in handling cross-Straits relations". Enditem
Those Subtle Chinese [NOT]
By Robert Kagan
friend of Taiwan
in the Washington Post
Thursday, March 10, 2005
For the past few months I've been hearing from a bevy of China ''experts'' about how subtle and brilliant Beijing's diplomacy has become in recent years. Sophisticated and confident, Chinese diplomats have been running rings around the United States, winning friends and influencing people throughout East Asia and the world. So I can only marvel at China's latest diplomatic gambits, whose brilliance and sophistication must be so subtle as not to be susceptible to normal modes of analysis. [IT'S CALLED LYING WITH YOUR EYES WIDE OPEN!]
First, China's leaders this week introduced a draft "Anti-Secession Law" in the People's Congress that threatens military action against Taiwan. An official summary of the legislation declares that "in the event that the 'Taiwan independence' forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or that possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted, that [the] state shall employ non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity." This deliberately vague threat would seem to suggest that China might attack Taiwan in the event that (a) Taiwan declares independence, (b) seems to be about to declare independence, (c) seems to be thinking about possibly declaring independence some time in the future or (d) is not thinking about independence at all but merely refuses to be absorbed by China in a timely manner. [SMILE. YOU GOT IT, KAGAN! D is it]
What's striking about this bellicose "legislation" is not only the content but the timing. It comes on the heels of an election in Taiwan in which pro-independence forces are widely assumed to have suffered a bit of a setback and when Taiwan's president, Chen Shui-bian, seems intent on improving the climate of cross-strait relations. He recently announced publicly that he would "not declare independence," would not seek an amendment to the constitution to change Taiwan's status and would not "promote a referendum to change the status quo in regards to the issues of independence or unification." Perhaps Beijing thinks it is wise to follow this softening of the Taiwanese position with a renewed round of threats and intimidation, though if history is any guide, such intimidation will produce the opposite effect in Taiwan. [YES!]
The threat also comes as some of China's neighbors, notably Japan and, more quietly, Australia, are evincing some nervousness about China's growing power and muscle-flexing. Japan has recently sought to broaden the scope of its security ties with the United States and for the first time has explicitly discussed joint U.S.-Japanese cooperation in the event of a crisis in the Taiwan Strait. What better way for China to soothe Japanese nervousness than to appear even more belligerent?
But Chinese subtlety doesn't end there. According to a report this week in The Australian, Chinese officials have recently demanded that the Australian government "review" its 50-year-old treaty with the United States. Australia "needs to be careful," Beijing Foreign Ministry official He Yafei reportedly warned, lest it wind up in a confrontation with China as part of its treaty obligations to the United States. Now, anyone who knows the Australian character knows that this kind of blunt "warning" and demand for a loosening of security ties with the United States is precisely the wrong tack to take if you really hope to influence Australian policy. So the Chinese must be operating on an entirely different plane of diplomatic sophistication.
In fact, of course, there is nothing at all subtle about Chinese "diplomacy." SMILE. BINGO.
The Chinese are indeed flexing their muscles, wielding their increasing economic and military clout to demand greater obedience from their neighbors. There is nothing surprising in this. The only surprise is the way the world, including the United States, has in recent years tried to ignore China's growing belligerence, mesmerized by its economic performance and dreaming of a reformed, postmodern China that can be "integrated" into the global liberal economic order. Some American analysts have even been calling for the erection of new collective security structures in East Asia that would include China.
But that rather misses the point. New security structures are needed in East Asia, but they should involve America's democratic allies, all of whom now share an increasing fear of a China whose rise may or may not be entirely peaceful. Since Sept. 11, 2001, a United States understandably consumed with the terrorist threat has done less than it might have to reassure those allies that America's power and its will to deter remain undiminished in East Asia. This may have helped convince the Chinese that bullying can work.
It is possible that China hopes to get what it wants by bullying alone and that the Chinese leadership has no real intention of making good on its threats. It is also possible, however, that the Chinese are laying the groundwork for an eventual military assault on Taiwan. Who knows? Either way it would be foolish and dangerous to ignore Chinese threats. The best way to avoid war in the Taiwan Strait is to make clear that the United States will abide by its defense commitments, together with its Australian and Japanese allies. Let's not be too subtle.
=================
Robert Kagan, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, writes a monthly column for The Post.
see Frank Chiang's oped in Taipei Times today
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